The iPhone in Context

To us Silicon Valley geeks who worship Apple (along with other few Silicon Valley icons) it might seem as if the iPhone has taken over the world. After all, in the Bay Area this superlative gadget of all time has indeed taken over.

So as a reminder to myself that sometimes I need to take off my Silicon Valley goggles, I looked up some interesting facts:

Number of phones shipped in Q1 2008

Apple iPhone: 1.7 Million

Motorola: 27.4 Million (a 40% marketshare loss)

Nokia: 22 Million

Sony/Ericsson: 22.3 million

So for a developer, does it still make sense to target the iPhone?

One mobile enthusiast I know well and respect insists that it’s not the current footprint of the iPhone that matters as much. It is a good investment because the footprint will increase eventually (some experts speculate the iPhone will reach 100M shipped units by the end of 2008 – I’m not sure if they live in the Silicon Valley or not, but my guess would be yes ;-)).

And its footprint has certainly already passed the footprint of any other device+OS+application platform combination out there. Not sure, however, how the late news of the iPhone being out of stock will affect this in the few months to come. Nevertheless, this is if anything an indicator that the demand for it is evergrowing.

So from a developer’s perspective the porting issues are null as long Apple continues to be consistent in its implementation of future versions.

In the end, howver, only time will tell if the iPhone will catch up with the incumbents in terms of market share in this hyper saturated space; or if the incumbents will catch up with the iPhone it terms of understanding of good user interface and real consumer needs.

Post Blogger’s Block

I’m recovering from serious blogger’s block. After being stuck in the rut for about one month the ideas are suddenly flowing.

I blame it on a vacation I recently took to visit my family in Mexico City, after which I was incredibly homesick for a while. I’ll post some pictures so that you can see for yourselves how this is fully justified.

Anyway, back in the groove…

It is not just about the outcome of the 700 MHz auction

The incumbents triumphed. The FCC collected $19.59, almost twice what they had projected. And nothing has really changed. Well, almost nothing...

Some deem Google's congratulatory message to the auction's winners as somewhat of a concession speech. I, however, am inclined to believe that the under performance of Google during the 700 MHz spectrum auction could not be accidental.

For one thing all of the upfront posturing and lobbying did help put conditions for an "open network" on the much coveted C block.

The Google threat probably also caused the large incumbents to dish out more cash than they would have had to otherwise. Google did bid $4.6 Billion early during the auction. At the end Verizon wound up dishing out a whopping $9.63 Billion, while AT&T dished out $6.64 Billion.

There could also exist the realization on the part of Google that the best way forward for Android is not through a mobile network of its own (i.e., limited devices), but rather through collaboration with the incumbents. This would potentially, and depending on how smart it continues to play the game, give it a much wider footprint.

So rather than being disappointed I'd much rather focus on the promising changes this whole melodrama has brought about:

1. Various operators, including Verizon, have expressed the acceptance of Android
2. AT&T and Verizon announced a move towards open access
3. This week Verizon hosted its first and historical open development conference
3. Verizon released its first open access device specifications today

Let's keep in mind that just one year ago these events were simply unimaginable.

Verizon does deliver after all

Verizon's Open Development Conference did get off to a start after all... (Web site and all)

By now, the 2nd day of the conference, the much anticipated device specs must have been unveiled. At the same time Verizon has promised that the requirements "will not be burdensome".

More to come later...

Incumbent Beware

One might expect that especially given the recent announcement of Google's I/O Web Forward open source conference during which Android will likely take the front stage, Verizon Wireless would be building some serious buzz around its own Open Development conference.

Rule number one: make sure that the main link on your press release works!! Yup, you know that link that points to all of the details about the thing you are announcing? Make sure the page is up especially if the conference is only but two days away (and the hot shot new entrant is stealing your thunder)!!!

So much for the anticipation... Hmm... although perhaps someone got an early start on that maintenance window...

On the other hand, here are the deets on Google I/O:



When: May 28-29 2008
Where: San Francisco @ West Moscone
Early Bird registration is $300
Attendee Registration is $400
And they even have the very generous gesture to offer student passes for just $50 each.

Why? (as if a reason was needed) An opportunity to see all of the best of Google's developers talk about all of Google's development platforms. Need I say more?

Regarding Verizon's open development conference, which is supposed to start this week on the 19th, I've been combing the Web for details today without much success. As soon as I find more information I'll be sure to post it.

Spectrum Auction: The Cash Cow is Slowing Down

17 days and 81 rounds into the 700 Mhz spectrum auction and the total bid amount is up to a whopping $19.5 Billion!

The question keeps popping up: who are the top contenders? The auction is silent so we really will not know until the auction ends. There are 214 approved bidders. Most industry experts speculate that Verizon and AT&T have been the most aggressive of the bidders. Some have even speculated that Google dropped out. Although, frankly, these allegations seems a little unfounded.

Block C is the most sought after chunk of spectrum because it is national. While some speculate Verizon has been aggressively pursuing this block, others expect a more tricky move to bid on the cheaper regional blocks.

The winner of the other national block, Block D, would have to build out a network that would have to be shared with the government to offer public safety services. Not surprisingly, the bidding for Block D has not gone as wished for by the FCC – still about $800 Million from the $1.3 Billion reserve price – and the Block will likely be put for bid at a later date.

More Strides towards Openness: Funambol

Funambol offers open source email, contacts and calendars. It provides connectors between Microsoft Exchange and IBM Domino email servers, and a range of mobile devices. It also provides an open community for other open source and standard solutions that service providers and mobile device manufacturers can benefit from.

So one might ask what the value prop of Funambol is when Android promises to be the answer to mobile open source. The answer is that Android is a software stack, while Funambol is a platform. Therefore, they are very complementary to eachother.

Take the following example:

As a potential consumer of Funambol I have already found a problem using its consumer service. As usual, the problem is porting. My phone, being one of the most popular phones, the LG chocolate, is not supported by Funambol. Also, in my case, Funambol assumes Verizon’s phones are open. When I tried to set up my account Funambol gave me clear instructions on how to tweak my phone settings to synchronize with Funambol’s server. The problem is Verizon does not allow for that because they either want me to pay for the sync application on a smartphone, or to download and pay for a Brew email client on my feature device.

The bottom line is that this problem makes for a stronger case for Android and the power it has to forge relationships with operators and OEM’s, and lowering the porting barriers.

If unlike me, you do have access to an open device and furthermore, to an outlook server here are some quick easy resources to help you through the steps: setting up Outlook and Blackberry.

Auction: Today Ends at $11.6 B

Auction Day 4 Summary

This is what the little cash cow looked like at the end of yesterday's rounds.

This morning, after round 14 the tally was up to $10.2 Billion (ch-ching!).

The other news is that at last one bid has been made for block D. The bid came in just under $0.5 Billion. This block is the one the FCC has mandated it must be shared with a national public safety communications network.

Auction - Day 3 Results

Less than $4 Billion away from the government's initial goal.

When the auction will be over is hard to tell. And there are two certain parties that will go head-to-head until the very end. The government's original goal of $10 Billion might turn out to be a very conservative target after all.

I am just hoping the European 3G licenses saga isn't about to happen again.

Mig33

A new hot company has just arrived in the Valley and promises to be all the craze: Mig33.

Mig33 is a do-it-all-in-one downloadable "light" client packaged as a mobile social networking service. So what deems Mig33 hot? Its reach already covers 9 million subs accross 200 countries, and enjoys at least five fan sites.

The features Mig33 offers are VOIP, IM, and chat. But the most interesting aspect of Mig33, at least to me, is its Merchants program, which consists of peer to peer re-selling of credits. Mig33 users get a 25% discount when they buy $100 or more worth of credits and they can turn around and re-sell these to other users at a discount for a profit.

On the other hand, I am a little less optimistic about the traction mig33 is likely to get in the US with its downloadable client. The larger carriers block downloading to many of their devices. So unless mig33 gets on a couple of carrier decks (and pays for the right to do so), US penetration will be challenging. The one consolation is its WAP site, which although bare, it provides subscribers with an easy way to access mig33 on the go.

700 MHz Spectrum Auction Bid Tracker

It's day three of the auction. I've started tracking the amoung of $ the federal government will raise in the auction. Selling air sure is a nice business to be in!

Bidders will not be disclosed until the end of the auction, but Google, Verizon Wireless, and AT&T are reportedly in the race, having qualified for it prior to the start of the auction.

What Mobile Openness Might Look Like

Just some speculation about what all the industry changes i.e. the 700 mhz spectrum, Verizon's seemingly move towards an “open" platform… Android recently announced deal with NTT DoCoMo, might bring forth...

For the carriers having an open platform and environment may imply not getting a slice of the pie each time content is delivered over their networks. For Brands with direct relationships with end consumers will not have to rely on the carriers to collect $ from those customers. Having bought many CD's from Amazon from my phone (that was back in the day before itunes), I can tell you the carrier didn't see a dime of those transations. That is the direction of things. Also, take iTunes as another example. If I could download an iTunes song to my phone, I would buy it directly from iTunes. And if the device platform and access to the device is open enough where a) I can navigate to iTunes directly, b) iTunes knows my identity or can easily verify it, c) and the song can get directly to the phone, my carrier bill becomes obsolete.

700 MHz Auction Countdown is On

We're just but a few hours away...

One Small Step for Verizon, One Big Step for Mankind

Mark your calendars! March 19-20 is Verizon’s Open Development conference.

But what does this mean exactly? If you are an application developer, don’t book your flight to NYC just yet. For starters, the conference is not for all developers.

The first step towards enabling an open platform environment is getting device manufacturers on board and in sync with each other. This explains why the first conference targets device developers. During the conference Verizon will review its technical device standards. The question is are these “standards” standard with respect to the rest of the devices in the world?

On a side note: another, perhaps even bigger announcement is the “company’s desire to encourage innovation, give customers wireless choices, and quickly address opportunities to expand the wireless market”. I just love the sound of that!

Related posts: GigaOm, mobilebuzz

Simple Wins, Especially in Mobile

In past posts I have ranted about the challenges of developing applications in the mobile space: the closeness of various platorms, the fragmentation of devices (ranging from hardware to operating systems to development platforms, and even to applications, such as browsers).

Today, even as I anticipate the blossoming of open platforms, I still strongly recommend SMS as the simplest and fastest way to reach mobile users. This is why I was ever so delighted to see that TechCrunch's first "Best Mobile Start Up" Crunchies award went to Twitter. I am a huge proponent of Web meets Mobile services; in a not so far future all applications will fall under this category.

It is true that Twitter is more than a mobile application; it integrates many communication mediums. But when it comes to taking the best it has to offer, its simplicity, and taking it to the next level by integrating mobility, Twitter is still one of the best examples I can think of.

Guitar Hero Any Time, Any Where!

Since this has become my latest addiction I thought I would post a quick review:

It is a really good app based on an outstanding video game. Hands On Mobile has done a superb job transposing the guitar-based UI to a handset.

• It works just like Guitar Hero, except there are only three keys (instead of five)
• The graphics are also pretty good and true to the game
• The AV synchronization is almost perfect (every once in a while a note will be slightly off, but this is barely noticeable to someone who has worked on mobile video applications before)
• The sound on the Verizon Chocolate is pretty good, especially with stereo head phones

What I didn't find optimal:

• No free-demo available?! That’s kind of sketchy! So in order to try the game I had to pay for the 1st month’s subscription. Talk about a deterrent for some folks out there
• Interesting pricing strategy going on here: only four songs available with the 1st month’s subscription. One can work his way up to fifteen songs total (three at a time). But given how addictive the game is, unless more songs are available soon, there will be little incentive for folks to renew their subscription beyond five months. This makes it better to simply pay the indefinite package upfront
• The biggest drawback is that one can only have two songs residing in the phone at the same time. To switch from resident songs to the other two songs, the full songs must be downloaded. Translation: almost a minute to download each song (too bad one can’t take a Guitar Hero break during)
• And the ever present problem with mobile anything: when I play to “Suck my Kiss” (by the Red Hot Chili Peppers) it feels more like “Suck My Battery” just after a few plays
  

The game is currently sold exclusively on Verizon phones. One can download it through Fun & Games on GetItNow (or the Brew deck for mobile geeks out there familiar with the term). One can pay $4.49 for a month to month subscription, or $11.99 to have indefinitely.

The WAP Fenced Garden

In the U.S. the concept of off-portal premium content and applications provided over WAP is almost nonexistent as most carriers maintain a fairly closed WAP walled garden.

But do off-portal content and application providers sit idle while waiting for the walled garden to come down? No.

When there is a will, and a loophole, there is a way.

Most carriers do allow end users to navigate to sites outside of the carrier-branded portal. The problem is that as end users navigate outside of the walled garden, off- portal sites will not benefit from automatically knowing their identities (i.e. the phone number). In a way this is similar to a Web experience – the only difference is the limited UI of the device. Many content providers thus take advantage of this by continuing to sell their content in a variety of different and creative ways.

One way is through the use of a third party payment method, such as Paypal or credit cards. On Verizon Wireless I can easily navigate to a content provider’s WAP page (the name of the content provider will go unmentioned), select a ring-tone, enter my credit card number, confirm my purchase. The two problems with this are 1) the cumbersome user-experience, and 2) most phones do not allow content downloading over HTTP (in my case, I got charged for the purchase but never received my content).

There are also other ways to marginally improve the end user experience:

Enter Off-Portal SMS. Through Premium Short Messaging Services (PSMS), off-portal content providers have been able to circumvent the WAP walled gardens. PSMS provides a way for content providers to bill consumers via the operator’s phone bill, either directly or through an operator-trusted aggregator.

The user experience might look something like this:

• User navigates to the content provider’s WAP site and selects the service

• User needs to provide the content provider with his/her phone number (manual input)

• To ensure the end user is truly the owner of the phone number an SMS containing an SMS message is sent to the phone number. Since the end user may have to exit the WAP session to receive the text message, the content provider sends a URL in the device (WAP Push). By selecting the URL the end user is taken back to the WAP page where he/she can continue with the transaction (and which serves as a means to authenticate the user)

• The content provider may deliver the content through a WAP download or through SMS, depending on the operator/device limitations

A less desirable user experience is one which is the last alternative for operators/devices that do not support WAP Push:

• User navigates to the content provider’s WAP site and selects the service

• User needs to provide the content provider with his/her phone number

• To ensure the end user is truly the owner of the phone number an SMS containing a PIN is sent to the device

• After the end user receives the PIN he/she may return to the WAP page, assuming the device’s browser is able to cache the page

• The end user enters the PIN

• The purchase is completed

• The content provider may deliver the content through a WAP download or through SMS, depending on the operator/device limitations

The big disadvantage is that the end user experience still leaves much to be desired.

The other disadvantage of PSMS is that the operators takes a cut of each purchase. The cut can range anywhere between 25% to 40%. The irony is that by trying to protect their walled gardens carriers are also keeping dollars outside of their precious garden, and out of content providers’ wallets.

In the Spirit of the New Year: Mobile Awareness

My first post of 2008 goes out to RareEarthTones. Unlike the vast majority of mobile content providers, RareEarthTones is leveraging the most ubiquitous access technology to promote awareness about endangered species. It does so by offering FREE ringtones featuring the sounds of animals at the brink of extintion.

I tried it on my Verizon phone and it worked like a charm.

This is truly liberating. The economics of SMS are very unlike the Internet. There is a considerable cost that the Center for Biological Diversity (or some very generous donor) must be incurring. I cannot think of a better purpose!

My Location: Google is Not Always Watching Me over the Airwaves

Google surprised us again this week with yet another bold announcement. With My Location Mobile Maps will be able to tell you where you are. But fear not, big-brother or stalker phoebes. In contrast to Google’s free WiFi service, Mobile Maps has made the very intelligent decision to not bother to know where you are. All My Location knows is an arbitrary identification number (not your MDN, which is your seven digit phone number) that is associated with your mobile device.

The challenge for operators is that whether their LBS platforms provide anonymity or not, it will be difficult for them to shake off the perception that they do not. The network knows the MDN associated with the device; the MDN is associated with the account. The account not only holds information about the identity of the subscriber, but even other facts such as mailing address and credit card number.

Google’s announcement also sparked new discussions about how the carriers ought to release LBS APIs that application developers can take advantage of. This only speaks for the U.S. operators’ inability to effectively educate the media. After all, as I have posted before, some operators do have open (or semi-open, depending on whether economics are part of the definition) APIs. So here is a quick snapshot of carrier supported LBS APIs for developers:

Verizon Wireless
Sprint
ATT

Right now Mobile Maps is limited to smart devices such as Blackberry, Windows Mobile, and Symbian. However, in America it is feature phones that occupy the largest footprint today. So why doesn’t Google take advantage of the semi-open API’s provided by operators? Hmm… perhaps they will soon… Or perhaps the economics get a little murky since operators impose revenue share models on subscriptions to on-deck applications. To make things even more complicated, with Brew operators a third party is also involved: Qualcomm. In contrast, Google’s model is based on advertising, which means giving the service away for free. So perhaps with a little creativity, and suppression of egos, all players could come to friendly terms that would ultimately benefit us, the end users.

Regardless of how this will pan out, the truth is Google’s is definitely a good long term strategy; eventually most, if not all, devices will be open smart devices.

I end this post with the real question that I have: will Google make Mobile Maps open like its online counterpart some day?

(Here is a good interview with the Google Maps product manager, Steve Lee).