It is not just about the outcome of the 700 MHz auction

The incumbents triumphed. The FCC collected $19.59, almost twice what they had projected. And nothing has really changed. Well, almost nothing...

Some deem Google's congratulatory message to the auction's winners as somewhat of a concession speech. I, however, am inclined to believe that the under performance of Google during the 700 MHz spectrum auction could not be accidental.

For one thing all of the upfront posturing and lobbying did help put conditions for an "open network" on the much coveted C block.

The Google threat probably also caused the large incumbents to dish out more cash than they would have had to otherwise. Google did bid $4.6 Billion early during the auction. At the end Verizon wound up dishing out a whopping $9.63 Billion, while AT&T dished out $6.64 Billion.

There could also exist the realization on the part of Google that the best way forward for Android is not through a mobile network of its own (i.e., limited devices), but rather through collaboration with the incumbents. This would potentially, and depending on how smart it continues to play the game, give it a much wider footprint.

So rather than being disappointed I'd much rather focus on the promising changes this whole melodrama has brought about:

1. Various operators, including Verizon, have expressed the acceptance of Android
2. AT&T and Verizon announced a move towards open access
3. This week Verizon hosted its first and historical open development conference
3. Verizon released its first open access device specifications today

Let's keep in mind that just one year ago these events were simply unimaginable.

Spectrum Auction: The Cash Cow is Slowing Down

17 days and 81 rounds into the 700 Mhz spectrum auction and the total bid amount is up to a whopping $19.5 Billion!

The question keeps popping up: who are the top contenders? The auction is silent so we really will not know until the auction ends. There are 214 approved bidders. Most industry experts speculate that Verizon and AT&T have been the most aggressive of the bidders. Some have even speculated that Google dropped out. Although, frankly, these allegations seems a little unfounded.

Block C is the most sought after chunk of spectrum because it is national. While some speculate Verizon has been aggressively pursuing this block, others expect a more tricky move to bid on the cheaper regional blocks.

The winner of the other national block, Block D, would have to build out a network that would have to be shared with the government to offer public safety services. Not surprisingly, the bidding for Block D has not gone as wished for by the FCC – still about $800 Million from the $1.3 Billion reserve price – and the Block will likely be put for bid at a later date.

Auction: Today Ends at $11.6 B

Auction Day 4 Summary

This is what the little cash cow looked like at the end of yesterday's rounds.

This morning, after round 14 the tally was up to $10.2 Billion (ch-ching!).

The other news is that at last one bid has been made for block D. The bid came in just under $0.5 Billion. This block is the one the FCC has mandated it must be shared with a national public safety communications network.

Auction - Day 3 Results

Less than $4 Billion away from the government's initial goal.

When the auction will be over is hard to tell. And there are two certain parties that will go head-to-head until the very end. The government's original goal of $10 Billion might turn out to be a very conservative target after all.

I am just hoping the European 3G licenses saga isn't about to happen again.

700 MHz Spectrum Auction Bid Tracker

It's day three of the auction. I've started tracking the amoung of $ the federal government will raise in the auction. Selling air sure is a nice business to be in!

Bidders will not be disclosed until the end of the auction, but Google, Verizon Wireless, and AT&T are reportedly in the race, having qualified for it prior to the start of the auction.